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They pretty much aren't making smallish solid axle SUVs anymore, so nothing will truly replace the XJ. I suppose the 4-door JK with a hard top meets the bill pretty close functionally and dimensionally, but they're balls expensive.
There will never be another XJ. Good thing they built so many of them.
I personally hate the interiors of the xterra's, to small, weird seating position etc. the newer body style ones '06 and newer I think, are nice but again, not comfortable.
I think the 4 door wranglers will likely be the replacement for the xj, along with the xterra and four runner, maybe the H3, KJ's, KK's, etc. I really think in the future more people will just build buggies and keep vehicle as a dd and play with a dedicated vehicle.
I think you hit it there. When gas prices get above $4 (and they will), you will need an econobox for your daily driver. Then a pure off road toy will be more desirable. Combining the two will be prohibitive. My dirt bike is way more fun off road too and way easier to push out if you break it.
In market research for product development I've already noticed that the XJ popularity grew like mad over the last four or five years as the cost of them dropped rapidly.
Now we're starting to notice that the grands (ZJ/WJ) are starting to do the same. Prices are dropping and popularity is growing.
But, that only gives you another 3 years into 04 of newer Jeeps versus the XJ. I think the WJ has a surplus of vehicles available like the XJ did too though.
The FJ cruiser is also still doing fairly well in the slow aftermarket we're currently experiencing.
After the WJ, Jeep doesn't really have a solid axle replacement SUV anymore...time to switch to landrover I guess...ew.
Our next family wheeler (something with a back seat) will likely be a early to mid 90's 4Runner with a SAS. Currently love my XJ, but it's obvious that it's not going to last forever.