Shoe Creek / Big Levels (GWNF; VA) - Sunday, March 6th

[casm]

Will definitely be coming. Are we meeting on the road before the trail itself or the camp ground / clearing just over the creek?

I'd say on the road just before the South entrance to the trail. Your landmark will be the maroon 2000 XJ with TJ Moab rims and oval RKBA sticker in the back window, provided I don't oversleep my alarm

 

[Cnickgo]

Haven't got a chance to redo my clutch slave yet, so I'm out .

 

[xjtrailrider]

Jon do you have open seat just in case?

Its possible, my 17 year old may go, I'll check

 

[xjtrailrider]

I have (as of right now) a Toyota truck following me up. He will have a rider and this will be his first venture out with this truck. It comes well armed with a Trail Gear 5.5" lift(installed by me and the owner) 33" AT's. No recovery points yet but we can find a place to yank on it if we need to. We are running up 81 from Salem VA so if anyone wants to meet us post up and we can run together.

 

[MJ Deady]

i am not from this state... does va req a ohv sticker and if so how do i get one. thanks

 

[casm]

i am not from this state... does va req a ohv sticker and if so how do i get one. thanks

The trails we'll be running are essentially forest routes, so all you'll need are whatever your home state requires to put the vehicle on the road - at a minimum, I'd take that to mean current tags and proof of insurance.

 

[xjtrailrider]

The weather guru's are calling for up to 2" of rainfall in the Buena Vista area for Sat night into Sunday! Just a heads up!

 

[casm]

The weather guru's are calling for up to 2" of rainfall in the Buena Vista area for Sat night into Sunday! Just a heads up!

Hm... Probably a good idea to play going on to Big Levels after Shoe Creek by ear, then. The rain is apparently going to blanket this whole side of the state.

 

[DAZYDG]

Its possible, my 17 year old may go, I'll check

Just let me know, do you still have my number? Just Pm me if you want.

From NWS:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE BLUE RIDGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

 

[casm]

And the forecast just keeps looking better and better:

Issued by The National Weather Service
Baltimore/Washington, MD
Sat, Mar 5, 2011, 12:00 AM EST

... FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CLARKE... PAGE... SHENANDOAH AND WARREN. IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... AUGUSTA... ROCKINGHAM AND HIGHLAND.

* FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

 

[xjtrailrider]

I'm out! I try to practice "tread lightly" whenever I can and with the amount of rainfall we have had, the trails will be fun but i feel we will also do damage to them.

Since it is a 2 hour drive from here and with fuel costs the way they are, I'll spend my money for a trip on a nicer day!

You all have fun/be safe!

 

[XJVA13]

An unfortunate second to that. If the storm forecast changes I'll be there. Will check the forecast and forum in the AM.

 

[MJ Deady]

i am still interested in going. who else is in. please pm me your number so i can call when i am in the area. this will be the only weekend i will have this year. i want to go bad. just let me know, thanks mark

 

[casm]

I'm really sorry to have to do this (and especially at the last minute), but it looks like it would be best to reschedule this run for another weekend. We're getting dumped on pretty heavily here right now, and there's nothing in the forecast that indicates it will be better at any time tomorrow. Given that right now we're only twelve hours out from the meetup time, this doesn't give a lot of leeway to see what happens with the weather.

xjtrailrider's points regarding not damaging the trail are dead-on IMHO, but one other consideration comes into play: safety. The entire area is under flash flood warning, and there are four water crossings of varying difficulty up there. Chances are there wouldn't be any problems, but I would really prefer to not take that risk and have everyone remain in one piece.

My apologies to everyone; hopefully we can figure something out in a few weeks' time.

 

[MJ Deady]

is their anywhere i might could go. i have spent money to go wheeling this weekend and it the last weekend of the year that i will have to do any thing. gearing up for my move to AK and then deployment in DEC. might be the last time for the next 2 years.... sorta a bummer if you think about it... just let me know what is do able, thanks.

 

[MJ Deady]

anyone at all still going

 

[UNCC_99XJ]

Looks like due to the weather it was postponed. Better to play it safe and protect the trails rather than take a chance with possible flash flooding.

 

[casm]

Looks like due to the weather it was postponed. Better to play it safe and protect the trails rather than take a chance with possible flash flooding.

In retrospect, it looks like not running the trails this weekend was likely the best decision - the creeks I've seen are up a foot or two over normal, and flowing fast. The roads are like lakes in places right now, too, and the rain's currently coming down nearly horizontally.

Let's regroup on this in April; the longer-range forecasts are indicating that this weather pattern is likely to happen on and off for the next two to three weeks or so.

 

[UNCC_99XJ]

In retrospect, it looks like not running the trails this weekend was likely the best decision - the creeks I've seen are up a foot or two over normal, and flowing fast. The roads are like lakes in places right now, too, and the rain's currently coming down nearly horizontally.

Let's regroup on this in April; the longer-range forecasts are indicating that this weather pattern is likely to happen on and off for the next two to three weeks or so.

It's been raining down here steady since around midnight. Lots of standing water on the roads as well and many people who seem to have forgotten how to drive in any kind of weather other than sunny.

April sounds like a plan. That also allows for us to see what fuel prices are going to do.

 

[xjtrailrider]

We are under a flash flood warning right now and many streams are in the road, I can only imagine how the trails would be. It was a good decision to post pone the ride.

My schedule is hit/miss until mid May when Lacrosse season is over. I coach my son's lax team and some weekends we have off and others we don't.

If I'm free, I'll be there!