Double dip 40% chance says chief economist

Elguapo

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/26/roubini_n_695536.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Start tightening those belts everyone/this shit may get scary

I do beilve though that we are a much more reselient country than Greece.
If they would have charged taxesvthe way they needed to all along then they might have less debt lol Comparing Greece to what was gold man sac to us in 08 is pretty damn intense though / not to mention the flash crash- unemployment numbers... O and my favorite the unemployment cow that has 310 million tits. Gawd/ imagine if inflation hit us during a crash...

Thats my rant for the month/ :yelclap:
 
Srry been reading for some securities liscenses over here pretty hardcore/ 10 hrs a day- XXXX in finance is all I'm reading and it makes a guy think about what's goin on with the economy
 
Dood........ you need to get a PC. This posting from the phone crap is hard to read........
 
it really is, its not all that "handsome" ;)

And for the record, its not a double dip when there actually has been no recovery -- when a "jobless recovery" is based on monopoly money forced into the system, it may not really be a recovery, but rather just another credit binge. Things will get worse when the banks actually loan the money the Fed has given them, OR the Fed decides to skip the middle man... I've been battening the hatches for a while, and I suggest you all do too -- not just ammo either, plenty of metal of other sorts, and bartering goods, as well as dry foods and such. I don't believe we will instantly devolve into mad-max or anything, but when all of the cash in your wallet is worth literally the paper its printed on, things could get a bit wacky for a while...:wierd:
 
Lol posted from an iPad/ this keyboard is way to big though... Can't win with apple's typing I guess. N I'm not turn'n all chicken little on u guys thinking the sky gonna fall btw.
I think have more like a 25% chance to go back, based on china. It's their turn to bring the world out of this cycle.
 
yeah, not the sky. just the dollar.:shiver:
 
not just ammo either, plenty of metal of other sorts, and bartering goods, as well as dry foods and such. I don't believe we will instantly devolve into mad-max or anything, but when all of the cash in your wallet is worth literally the paper its printed on, things could get a bit wacky for a while...:wierd:


So, what is it about these "metals" anyway. Gold and Silver for instance...... why is it so valuable? Seems to me it's value simply comes from being pretty and shiny.

Really? We base our money's value on a pretty, shiny metal? Ya can't eat it, ya can't burn it to stay warm, it won't fuel your car or power your light bulbs....... :dunno:

In a truely crapped out market/economy, do you think having a stash of Gold will really be a good trading commodity?

Maybe Uranium...... but ya can't keep that in your pocket now can ya....... :D

How would a country rebuild it's economy based on it's gold stash once the economy has tanked?

Edgeumakate me........
 
I think it was in Kenya(when they had that crazy hyperinflation) that people tried to pay for shit with a barrel of money. They bought what they needed with the barrel because it was worth more than the money. Lol

Mehh, we can just printing money and not back it with shit/ it's alright... Lol seriously i do know I'm not getting any social security when i retire/ and europe isn't in any better shape. (any bids on the euro going away?)
 
Im happy to make a proper write up with what inthink would happen, what happened in the past/ the key differences between us and the last depression. Let me jam on this test on Monday and I will make time to share what I know/opinion.
 
I'm shooting for NOT double dipping since i'm buying a house, having a kid, and starting a second job. I don't need our house underwater within a year of purchase! Our valley fortunately is "not AS affected" as the rest of the state/country. We have enough big money here as well as the people to support our economy fairly well. I have found that during a recession, sticking around near the niche markets has kept me working. (IE tourism and ski industry) People may be broke, but there are three things they don't give up in our valley. Booze, drugs, and fun. And we have plenty of all three around here...
 
LBC970 said:
People may be broke, but there are three things they don't give up in our valley. Booze, drugs, and fun. And we have plenty of all three around here...
LMAO! I'm almost jealous!

It's a good time for a fella to diversify. I almost switched trades a few years ago, but had nothing to carry me during the slow months. From what I've heard, that was a good decision.

Now to work on those other 'lil things that keep us warm, dry, and fed during the cold months.
 
I've always been a glass half full kind of guy so I'm not worried about the economy.

Life is much better when viewed through JZ filled glasses.
 
I've seen your JZ glasses, and I hate to tell you, but they're ALWAYS 1/2 empty :shhh:

Troy, your instinct on metal might be correct, but history doesn't back that up... Yeah, gold and silver are pretty and shiny, they also have nearly unlimited industrial applications. But historically, 4000+ years, they have been the commodity basis for money in virtually every society -- gold IS money. Every single society in history which has attempted to utilize a "fiat money" standard (paper, or non-commodity backed money) has failed, every single one.

You can go back to roman emperors who first started shaving the coins, so that a 1 oz. coin actually only weighed 0.8 oz, and they pocketed the difference, and that evolves into banking, where people would deposit their real money (gold/silver) with banks in exchange for promissory notes, which would allow the bearer to go back to the bank and get that quantity of metal -- nothing wrong with that, really, as long as the banks are trustworthy and the notes are honored, it allows people not to have to carry 10lbs of metal with them just to have dinner...

The problem arises when banking becomes CENTRAL banking, and the government the allows "fractional reserve" banking to take hold. In fractional reserve banking, the bank can take $100 in metal deposits, and then loan out $1000, based on that limited reserve -- think about that, you put your $100 in the bank and get a promissory note stating that you can have it back anytime - the bank makes loans at a 10X value on that deposit, with others now having claims to the same reserves -- thus the fear of a "run on the bank" when things turn sour, as the bank simply doesn't have enough "real" money on hand to pay out all of the promissory notes it has issued...

This problem then compounds further, when the government -- like the US did first in 1913, again during FDR's administration, and finally completed in 1971 under Nixon -- severs the commodity backing of the currency, and goes off the "gold standard". Now, suddenly, instead of the promissory notes in your wallet being backed by YOUR commodities in the bank (or at least a small portion of them), it is instead backed only by "the full faith and credit of the U.S. government". Even that might have been tolerable when the citizens of the U.S. had any faith in government, and when the world recognized that the U.S. government was credit worthy -- do you think that is the case now?

And then it gets worse, which evidences exactly why the U.S. isn't considered creditworthy anymore. Rather than following the model of the rest of the world, and installing an only marginally-better government owned/run central bank, the corrupt Wilson administration in 1913 cow-towed to wealthy industrialist bankers (Rothchilds, Rockerfellers, etc.), and agreed to a PRIVATELY OWNED central bank, the FEDERAL RESERVE, which is authorized (unconstitutionally) to literally print money, as well as to invest in federal debt instruments. Now, rather than the simple evil of leaving a commodity-based currency, we have PRIVATE interests that can expand the monetary supply infinitely to serve their own purposes, devaluing each "dollar" with every new dollar they print, and allowing the U.S. government to expand infinitely, by allowing the feds to simply write themselves a check -- i.e. issue a federal bond and have it purchased by the fed in U.S. dollars hot of the printing press. It is the road to ruin, it always has been, and we passed the ability to make a u-turn a long time ago. When the US government literally triples the monetary supply since August of 2008 - those dollars which are available for use in the economy, whether physical bills or electronic currency -- what do you think that does to the value of the dollar in your pocket? The simple answer is, it is, or soon will be, worth about 33% of what it was worth in 2008. This inflationary cycle (and inflation does NOT mean rising prices, it means expanded money supply, rising prices are merely a symptom) began in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve, and since that time, each dollar has lost nearly 95% of its value -- said another way, what you could buy with a nickle in 1913 now costs a buck. Americans have been desensitized to price increases, believing it is just naturally something that occurs, but it isn't, its a product of flawed currency and flawed economic policy, and 100-some years later, those long-standing policy pigeons are coming home to roost.

In a commodity backed currency, these shenanigans can't happen. I don't really care whether that commodity is gold, silver, oil or uranium, but it has to meet the commodity standard of being finite and having an inherent value to society as a whole. If its has inherent value, people want it. If it is finite, corrupt governments can't expand the monetary supply to fund empire building. Gold and silver fit that bill, are far more portable than oil, less hazardous to your health than uranium, and have a 4 millennium history of being used world wide as "real money".

So, that's the short answer to your question about "other metal", and why IMHO, we're F@#ked -- let have a JZ :gee:
 
Thats why I've been buying gold for ten years . Most of my friends think I was full of it when I explained how leverage works in the gold market .
Now I have my own store and all my friends are still working for the man ...

Since everyone has been selling their gold , I've been buying it . Now that the
ounce price is up 1200 an ounce , I've done pretty good for myself not listening to the know it all masters of the economy .

We still have something that allot of countries don't , Infrastructure , we have it they don't . I'm not too worried about our country . I believe the hard working American spirit will pull us through whatever the socialists can throw
at us or put on CNN .
 
Thats why I've been buying gold for ten years . Most of my friends think I was full of it when I explained how leverage works in the gold market .
Now I have my own store and all my friends are still working for the man ...

Since everyone has been selling their gold , I've been buying it . Now that the
ounce price is up 1200 an ounce , I've done pretty good for myself not listening to the know it all masters of the economy .

agreed 100%, unfortunately I didn't have the means nor the motivation until the price was at $600 or so... I guess I'll have to live with my modest "gains":D Gold is a lasting measure of purchase power, and that is why it IS money. To buy the average car today at $20k, would cost you about 17oz of gold, low and behold in 1920, the same 17oz would have bought you..... tada! an average car. Same is true for many goods, be it buisness suits, houses (less bubble inflation), or a gallon of milk. The "rising prices" which we have been indoctrinated as being normal are not actually a reflection of rising good prices, they are a reflection of diminishing currency value.

We still have something that allot of countries don't , Infrastructure , we have it they don't . I'm not too worried about our country . I believe the hard working American spirit will pull us through whatever the socialists can throw at us or put on CNN

Love your optimism, wish I shared it. We have infrastructure alright, although from a road/utilities standpoint, much of it is so old and antiquated that it is on the verge of collapes (particularly on the east coast where such infrastructure is even older, and subject to worsened corrosion effects). If you reference the infrastructure of industry, I again agree, but while it is physically in the US, it is not technically owned by the US given our incredible debt/consumer mentality and ever-increasing trade deficit.

I do have faith in a small percentage of the American people, who are able and willing to open their eyes to the mistakes of the past, educate themselves as to what has been lost and what is at stake, and commit themselves to continuing the "American experiment" in personal liberty and independence... we'll see if there are enough of us to survive the trials, and sustain the experiment, be it on a nation-wide, or more local level.:thumbup:
 
Did someone say JZ?

I just found out that my widowed neighbor has 160 boxes of her late hubby's y2k stash in her basement, and she wants it gone. Just gotta find a place for it all...

If you haven't read One Second After, get it! It's in the same vein as Alas Babylon, or On the Beach, but with a modern twist. Thought provoking and entertaining.

Steve
 
stash o what?:guitar:
 
If it is Jack, I'll be right over to help carry it away!

Chris - has anyone ever told you that you have a big brain?

no, skewed occasionally, but not all that big. I read alot.;)
 
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